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Northwestern playoff odds
Northwestern makes the College Football Playoff in 0.3% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Northwestern playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Northwestern is 6-3 (3-3 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 6.4%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.5 projected wins.
That is the 39th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Northwestern fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Northwestern's playoff odds the most.
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 0.24%
- Colorado over Houston, worth 0.21%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.19%
- Indiana over USC, worth 0.16%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 0.14%
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 0.11%
What Northwestern needs
Northwestern needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 2.7%. The game that decides the most is at Ohio State in week 11: 1.5% with a win, <0.1% with a loss.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Ohio State | 17.1% | 1.5% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Minnesota | 68.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Illinois | 68.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
Northwestern's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 9.5% | 2.7% |
| 8-4 | 44.9% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 35.6% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 10.0% | <0.1% |
Northwestern's results
week 1, beat South Dakota State 34-18; week 3, beat Colorado 41-7; week 4, lost to Indiana 23-29; week 5, beat Penn State 34-13; week 6, beat Ball State 45-14; week 7, beat Michigan State 24-21; week 8, beat Rutgers 42-14; week 9, lost to Oregon 26-34; week 10, lost to Iowa 10-24.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Northwestern make the College Football Playoff?
- Northwestern is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 0.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.5 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Northwestern need to make the playoff?
- Northwestern needs help even if it wins out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 2.7%. The game that decides the most is at Ohio State in week 11: 1.5% with a win, <0.1% with a loss.
- Who should Northwestern fans root for in week 11?
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 0.24% in playoff odds, then Colorado over Houston.
- What is Northwestern's toughest game left?
- At Ohio State in week 11, with a 17.1% chance to win.
- How are Northwestern's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Northwestern's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.