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USC playoff odds
USC makes the College Football Playoff in 13.0% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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USC playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
USC is 7-2 (4-2 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 13.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 15.4%), wins the Big Ten in 6.0%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.6% and wins the national title in 0.30%, with 8.7 projected wins.
That is the 21st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 21.
Who USC fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move USC's playoff odds the most.
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 1.71%
- Wisconsin over Maryland, worth 1.33%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 1.31%
- Penn State over Minnesota, worth 1.23%
- Fresno State over Texas State, worth 1.16%
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 1.11%
What USC needs
USC has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 84.4%, at 9-3 in 3.3%. The game that decides the most is at Indiana in week 11: 44.7% with a win, 1.3% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 12.1% of seasons. Winning it puts USC at 100.0% and losing it at 70.3%; missing it leaves 3.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Indiana | 26.9% | 44.7% | 1.3% |
| Week 12 | vs Maryland | 90.8% | 14.2% | 0.2% |
| Week 13 | at UCLA | 48.8% | 25.6% | 0.9% |
USC's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 13.7% | 84.4% |
| 9-3 | 43.6% | 3.3% |
| 8-4 | 38.4% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 4.4% | <0.1% |
USC's results
week 1, beat San José State 42-26; week 1, beat Fresno State 39-0; week 2, beat Louisiana 49-30; week 3, beat Rutgers 42-35; week 4, lost to Oregon 27-41; week 5, beat Washington 25-21; week 6, beat Penn State 31-23; week 8, lost to Wisconsin 7-24; week 9, beat Ohio State 30-18.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will USC make the College Football Playoff?
- USC is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 13.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.7 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 6.0% and the national title in 0.30%.
- What does USC need to make the playoff?
- USC has to win out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 84.4%, at 9-3 in 3.3%. The game that decides the most is at Indiana in week 11: 44.7% with a win, 1.3% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 12.1% of seasons. Winning it puts USC at 100.0% and losing it at 70.3%; missing it leaves 3.1%.
- Who should USC fans root for in week 11?
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 1.71% in playoff odds, then Wisconsin over Maryland.
- What is USC's toughest game left?
- At Indiana in week 11, with a 26.9% chance to win.
- How are USC's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in USC's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.