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Louisiana playoff odds
Louisiana makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Louisiana playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Louisiana is 6-3 (3-2 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in 0.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 8.2 projected wins.
That is the 91st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Louisiana fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Louisiana's playoff odds.
What Louisiana needs
Even at 9-3, Louisiana makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 0.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Louisiana at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at UL Monroe | 87.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Coastal Carolina | 76.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Georgia State | 53.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Louisiana's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 37.9% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 43.6% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 16.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 2.2% | <0.1% |
Louisiana's results
week 1, beat Lamar 38-7; week 2, lost to USC 30-49; week 3, beat UAB 21-14; week 4, beat Charlotte 34-7; week 5, beat Arkansas State 23-20; week 6, lost to Louisiana Tech 31-32; week 7, beat Troy 33-6; week 8, lost to Southern Miss 31-35; week 10, beat South Alabama 28-26.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Louisiana make the College Football Playoff?
- Louisiana is 6-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.2 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in 0.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Louisiana need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Louisiana makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 0.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Louisiana at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Louisiana fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Louisiana's playoff odds.
- What is Louisiana's toughest game left?
- At Georgia State in week 13, with a 53.7% chance to win.
- How are Louisiana's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Louisiana's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.