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South Alabama playoff odds
South Alabama makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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South Alabama playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
South Alabama is 4-5 (2-3 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.8 projected wins.
That is the 116th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who South Alabama fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on South Alabama's playoff odds.
What South Alabama needs
Even at 7-5, South Alabama makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 62.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Troy | 60.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Southern Miss | 56.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs App State | 58.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
South Alabama's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 22.9% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 39.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 28.9% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 9.1% | <0.1% |
South Alabama's results
week 1, beat SE Louisiana 39-14; week 2, lost to Tulane 24-28; week 3, beat Ohio 41-36; week 4, lost to Kentucky 21-45; week 5, beat UL Monroe 52-35; week 6, beat Arkansas State 56-49; week 8, lost to Marshall 13-20; week 9, lost to Louisiana Tech 20-35; week 10, lost to Louisiana 26-28.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will South Alabama make the College Football Playoff?
- South Alabama is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.8 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does South Alabama need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, South Alabama makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 62.0% of seasons.
- Who should South Alabama fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on South Alabama's playoff odds.
- What is South Alabama's toughest game left?
- At Southern Miss in week 12, with a 56.2% chance to win.
- How are South Alabama's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in South Alabama's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.