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UL Monroe playoff odds
UL Monroe makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UL Monroe playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UL Monroe is 2-7 (2-3 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 2.6 projected wins.
That is the 128th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who UL Monroe fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on UL Monroe's playoff odds.
What UL Monroe needs
Even at 5-7, UL Monroe makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Louisiana | 13.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at App State | 14.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Marshall | 36.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
UL Monroe's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 10.6% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 38.8% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 49.4% | <0.1% |
UL Monroe's results
week 1, lost to Mississippi State 13-62; week 2, lost to UAB 20-26; week 3, lost to SE Louisiana 35-38; week 4, lost to Florida Atlantic 17-45; week 5, lost to South Alabama 35-52; week 7, lost to Louisiana Tech 0-24; week 8, beat Troy 21-14; week 9, lost to Southern Miss 21-35; week 10, beat Arkansas State 19-17.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UL Monroe make the College Football Playoff?
- UL Monroe is 2-7 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 2.6 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UL Monroe need to make the playoff?
- Even at 5-7, UL Monroe makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should UL Monroe fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on UL Monroe's playoff odds.
- What is UL Monroe's toughest game left?
- Hosting Louisiana in week 11, with a 13.0% chance to win.
- How are UL Monroe's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UL Monroe's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.