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Marshall playoff odds
Marshall makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Marshall playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Marshall is 5-4 (2-3 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.4 projected wins.
That is the 92nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Marshall fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Marshall's playoff odds.
What Marshall needs
Even at 8-4, Marshall makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 84.5% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs App State | 42.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Georgia State | 37.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at UL Monroe | 63.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Marshall's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 12.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 34.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 37.8% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 15.5% | <0.1% |
Marshall's results
week 1, lost to Penn State 0-45; week 2, beat Middle Tennessee 28-26; week 3, beat Missouri State 30-24; week 4, beat Gardner-Webb 36-35; week 5, lost to James Madison 17-45; week 6, lost to Coastal Carolina 21-27; week 8, beat South Alabama 20-13; week 9, beat Old Dominion 36-23; week 10, lost to Georgia Southern 13-49.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Marshall make the College Football Playoff?
- Marshall is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.4 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Marshall need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Marshall makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 84.5% of seasons.
- Who should Marshall fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Marshall's playoff odds.
- What is Marshall's toughest game left?
- Hosting Georgia State in week 12, with a 37.1% chance to win.
- How are Marshall's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Marshall's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.