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Middle Tennessee playoff odds
Middle Tennessee makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Middle Tennessee playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Middle Tennessee is 5-4 (3-2 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in 0.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.1 projected wins.
That is the 98th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Middle Tennessee fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Middle Tennessee's playoff odds.
What Middle Tennessee needs
Even at 8-4, Middle Tennessee makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 0.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Middle Tennessee at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 77.6% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Liberty | 5.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Sam Houston | 53.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs New Mexico State | 53.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Middle Tennessee's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 2.3% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 30.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 44.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 22.4% | <0.1% |
Middle Tennessee's results
week 1, beat Murray State 38-14; week 2, lost to Marshall 26-28; week 3, beat Nevada 27-20; week 4, lost to Jacksonville State 13-23; week 5, lost to Kansas 0-55; week 7, beat Delaware 33-30; week 8, beat Florida International 26-23; week 9, lost to Kennesaw State 28-44; week 10, beat Western Kentucky 51-42.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Middle Tennessee make the College Football Playoff?
- Middle Tennessee is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.1 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in 0.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Middle Tennessee need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Middle Tennessee makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Conference USA title game in 0.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Middle Tennessee at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 77.6% of seasons.
- Who should Middle Tennessee fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Middle Tennessee's playoff odds.
- What is Middle Tennessee's toughest game left?
- At Liberty in week 11, with a 5.9% chance to win.
- How are Middle Tennessee's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Middle Tennessee's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.