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Sam Houston playoff odds
Sam Houston makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Sam Houston playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Sam Houston is 1-8 (0-5 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 2.1 projected wins.
That is the 113th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Sam Houston fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Sam Houston's playoff odds.
What Sam Houston needs
Even at 4-8, Sam Houston makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Kennesaw State | 35.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Middle Tennessee | 46.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Florida International | 25.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Sam Houston's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 5.7% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 24.3% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 41.5% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 28.5% | <0.1% |
Sam Houston's results
week 1, lost to Troy 21-24; week 2, lost to Tulsa 17-23; week 3, beat Nicholls 59-0; week 4, lost to Texas Tech 14-49; week 6, lost to Liberty 3-35; week 7, lost to Western Kentucky 3-16; week 8, lost to New Mexico State 24-30; week 9, lost to Missouri State 3-24; week 10, lost to Jacksonville State 14-47.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Sam Houston make the College Football Playoff?
- Sam Houston is 1-8 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 2.1 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Sam Houston need to make the playoff?
- Even at 4-8, Sam Houston makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Sam Houston fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Sam Houston's playoff odds.
- What is Sam Houston's toughest game left?
- At Florida International in week 13, with a 25.3% chance to win.
- How are Sam Houston's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Sam Houston's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.