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Western Kentucky playoff odds
Western Kentucky makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Western Kentucky playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Western Kentucky is 3-6 (2-3 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 3.9 projected wins.
That is the 136th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Western Kentucky fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Western Kentucky's playoff odds.
What Western Kentucky needs
Even at 6-6, Western Kentucky makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Jacksonville State | 33.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Liberty | 7.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Kennesaw State | 49.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Western Kentucky's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 1.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 20.0% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 45.2% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 32.9% | <0.1% |
Western Kentucky's results
week 1, lost to Nevada 14-49; week 2, lost to Georgia 20-70; week 3, lost to Indiana 0-38; week 4, beat Mercyhurst 52-7; week 5, lost to New Mexico State 13-34; week 6, beat Missouri State 34-13; week 7, beat Sam Houston 16-3; week 9, lost to Delaware 21-35; week 10, lost to Middle Tennessee 42-51.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Western Kentucky make the College Football Playoff?
- Western Kentucky is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 3.9 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Western Kentucky need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Western Kentucky makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Western Kentucky fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Western Kentucky's playoff odds.
- What is Western Kentucky's toughest game left?
- At Liberty in week 12, with a 7.4% chance to win.
- How are Western Kentucky's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Western Kentucky's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.