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Indiana playoff odds
Indiana makes the College Football Playoff in 62.9% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Indiana playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Indiana is 8-1 (5-1 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 62.9% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 82.5%), wins the Big Ten in 42.4%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 16.9% and wins the national title in 4.78%, with 10.4 projected wins.
That is the 9th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 11.
Who Indiana fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Indiana's playoff odds the most.
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 6.60%
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 3.70%
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 2.62%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 2.52%
- North Texas over UTSA, worth 1.82%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 1.68%
What Indiana needs
Indiana has to win out. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 98.9%, at 10-2 in 24.3%. The game that decides the most is against USC in week 11: 81.1% with a win, 13.3% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 63.0% of seasons. Winning it puts Indiana at 100.0% and losing it at 83.6%; missing it leaves 8.7%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs USC | 73.1% | 81.1% | 13.3% |
| Week 12 | at Washington | 78.1% | 74.9% | 19.9% |
| Week 13 | vs Purdue | 93.2% | 66.7% | 10.3% |
Indiana's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 54.8% | 98.9% |
| 10-2 | 35.4% | 24.3% |
| 9-3 | 9.0% | 0.1% |
| 8-4 | 0.7% | <0.1% |
Indiana's results
week 1, beat North Texas 52-16; week 2, beat Howard 55-0; week 3, beat Western Kentucky 38-0; week 4, beat Northwestern 29-23; week 5, beat Rutgers 47-15; week 6, beat Nebraska 20-17; week 7, lost to Ohio State 15-19; week 8, beat Michigan 13-6; week 9, beat Minnesota 23-16.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff?
- Indiana is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 62.9% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.4 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 42.4% and the national title in 4.78%.
- What does Indiana need to make the playoff?
- Indiana has to win out. At 11-1 it makes the playoff in 98.9%, at 10-2 in 24.3%. The game that decides the most is against USC in week 11: 81.1% with a win, 13.3% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 63.0% of seasons. Winning it puts Indiana at 100.0% and losing it at 83.6%; missing it leaves 8.7%.
- Who should Indiana fans root for in week 11?
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 6.60% in playoff odds, then Northwestern over Ohio State.
- What is Indiana's toughest game left?
- Hosting USC in week 11, with a 73.1% chance to win.
- How are Indiana's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Indiana's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.