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Nebraska playoff odds
Nebraska makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Nebraska playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Nebraska is 5-4 (2-4 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.5 projected wins.
That is the 103rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Nebraska fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Nebraska's playoff odds.
What Nebraska needs
Even at 8-4, Nebraska makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 91.2% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Rutgers | 83.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Ohio State | 29.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Iowa | 37.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Nebraska's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 11.0% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 37.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 42.8% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 8.8% | <0.1% |
Nebraska's results
week 1, beat Ohio 49-21; week 2, beat Bowling Green 56-7; week 3, beat North Dakota 34-7; week 4, beat Michigan State 31-13; week 5, beat Maryland 48-23; week 6, lost to Indiana 17-20; week 7, lost to Oregon 14-17; week 9, lost to Washington 10-17; week 10, lost to Illinois 13-24.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Nebraska make the College Football Playoff?
- Nebraska is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.5 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Nebraska need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Nebraska makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 91.2% of seasons.
- Who should Nebraska fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Nebraska's playoff odds.
- What is Nebraska's toughest game left?
- Hosting Ohio State in week 12, with a 29.3% chance to win.
- How are Nebraska's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Nebraska's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.