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Minnesota playoff odds
Minnesota makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Minnesota playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Minnesota is 5-4 (3-3 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.8 projected wins.
That is the 51st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Minnesota fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Minnesota's playoff odds the most.
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 0.01%
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 0.01%
- USC over Indiana, worth 0.01%
- Purdue over Iowa, worth 0.01%
- Washington over Michigan State, worth <0.01%
What Minnesota needs
Even at 8-4, Minnesota makes the playoff in 0.2% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Penn State in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 58.3% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Penn State | 20.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Northwestern | 31.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Wisconsin | 27.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Minnesota's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| 7-5 | 16.1% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 39.5% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 41.7% | <0.1% |
Minnesota's results
week 1, beat Eastern Illinois 59-7; week 2, lost to Mississippi State 13-38; week 3, beat Akron 41-7; week 4, beat Washington 27-24; week 5, beat Michigan 20-14; week 6, lost to Purdue 13-41; week 8, beat Iowa 13-10; week 9, lost to Indiana 16-23; week 10, lost to UCLA 20-34.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Minnesota make the College Football Playoff?
- Minnesota is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.8 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Minnesota need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, Minnesota makes the playoff in 0.2% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Penn State in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 58.3% of seasons.
- Who should Minnesota fans root for in week 11?
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 0.01% in playoff odds, then Northwestern over Ohio State.
- What is Minnesota's toughest game left?
- At Penn State in week 11, with a 20.5% chance to win.
- How are Minnesota's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Minnesota's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.