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Mississippi State playoff odds
Mississippi State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Mississippi State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Mississippi State is 4-5 (2-5 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.7 projected wins.
That is the 99th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Mississippi State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Mississippi State's playoff odds.
What Mississippi State needs
Even at 7-5, Mississippi State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 59.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Auburn | 51.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Tennessee Tech | 99.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Ole Miss | 17.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Mississippi State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 10.0% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 49.0% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 40.9% | <0.1% |
Mississippi State's results
week 1, beat UL Monroe 62-13; week 2, beat Minnesota 38-13; week 3, beat South Carolina 41-34; week 4, beat Missouri 31-24; week 5, lost to Alabama 23-56; week 7, lost to LSU 0-31; week 8, lost to Oklahoma 15-23; week 9, lost to Texas 3-31; week 10, lost to Vanderbilt 23-25.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Mississippi State make the College Football Playoff?
- Mississippi State is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.7 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Mississippi State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Mississippi State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 59.0% of seasons.
- Who should Mississippi State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Mississippi State's playoff odds.
- What is Mississippi State's toughest game left?
- At Ole Miss in week 13, with a 17.2% chance to win.
- How are Mississippi State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Mississippi State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.