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Auburn playoff odds
Auburn makes the College Football Playoff in 0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Auburn playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Auburn is 5-4 (3-4 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.6 projected wins.
That is the 42nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Auburn fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Auburn's playoff odds the most.
- Vanderbilt over Alabama, worth 0.14%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.09%
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 0.08%
- Georgia over Missouri, worth 0.08%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.06%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.04%
What Auburn needs
Auburn needs help even if it wins out. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 1.6%. The game that decides the most is at Alabama in week 13: 0.9% with a win, <0.1% with a loss.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Mississippi State | 48.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Samford | 99.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Alabama | 9.9% | 0.9% | <0.1% |
Auburn's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| 7-5 | 46.9% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 47.4% | <0.1% |
Auburn's results
week 1, beat Baylor 17-16; week 2, beat Southern Miss 43-8; week 3, lost to Florida 39-44; week 4, beat Vanderbilt 21-15; week 5, lost to Tennessee 14-24; week 7, beat Georgia 27-24; week 8, lost to LSU 17-38; week 9, lost to Ole Miss 15-45; week 10, beat Arkansas 26-23.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Auburn make the College Football Playoff?
- Auburn is 5-4 and makes the playoff in 0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.6 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Auburn need to make the playoff?
- Auburn needs help even if it wins out. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 1.6%. The game that decides the most is at Alabama in week 13: 0.9% with a win, <0.1% with a loss.
- Who should Auburn fans root for in week 11?
- Vanderbilt over Alabama, worth 0.14% in playoff odds, then Baylor over BYU.
- What is Auburn's toughest game left?
- At Alabama in week 13, with a 9.9% chance to win.
- How are Auburn's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Auburn's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.