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SMU playoff odds
SMU makes the College Football Playoff in 3.8% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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SMU playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
SMU is 7-2 (5-2 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 3.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 5.2%), wins the ACC in 3.5% and wins the national title in 0.04%, with 8.4 projected wins.
That is the 27th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who SMU fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move SMU's playoff odds the most.
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 4.24%
- Georgia Tech over Clemson, worth 0.95%
- Miami over Duke, worth 0.48%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.40%
- Syracuse over NC State, worth 0.20%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.13%
What SMU needs
SMU needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 19.0%. The game that decides the most is against Wake Forest in week 11: 9.0% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 16.5% of seasons. Winning it puts SMU at 100.0% and losing it at 0.7%; missing it leaves 0.2%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Wake Forest | 42.7% | 9.0% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Notre Dame | 12.6% | 8.8% | 3.1% |
| Week 13 | at Stanford | 88.9% | 4.3% | <0.1% |
SMU's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 5.8% | 19.0% |
| 9-3 | 39.1% | 7.0% |
| 8-4 | 48.5% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 6.6% | <0.1% |
SMU's results
week 1, beat Florida State 27-24; week 2, beat UC Davis 56-10; week 3, lost to Louisville 31-41; week 4, beat Missouri State 34-24; week 5, beat Boston College 25-16; week 7, beat Virginia 23-13; week 8, beat California 59-20; week 9, lost to Syracuse 27-30; week 10, beat Virginia Tech 51-28.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?
- SMU is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 3.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.4 projected wins. It wins the ACC in 3.5% and the national title in 0.04%.
- What does SMU need to make the playoff?
- SMU needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 19.0%. The game that decides the most is against Wake Forest in week 11: 9.0% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 16.5% of seasons. Winning it puts SMU at 100.0% and losing it at 0.7%; missing it leaves 0.2%.
- Who should SMU fans root for in week 11?
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 4.24% in playoff odds, then Georgia Tech over Clemson.
- What is SMU's toughest game left?
- At Notre Dame in week 12, with a 12.6% chance to win.
- How are SMU's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in SMU's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.