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Pittsburgh playoff odds
Pittsburgh makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Pittsburgh playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Pittsburgh is 6-3 (3-3 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the ACC in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.6 projected wins.
That is the 52nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Pittsburgh fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Pittsburgh's playoff odds the most.
- Miami over Duke, worth 0.01%
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth <0.01%
- Syracuse over NC State, worth <0.01%
What Pittsburgh needs
Even at 9-3, Pittsburgh makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Louisville in week 12: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Florida State | 57.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Louisville | 26.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at California | 78.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Pittsburgh's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 14.2% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 43.2% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 34.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 8.2% | <0.1% |
Pittsburgh's results
week 1, beat Miami (OH) 59-14; week 2, beat UCF 12-7; week 3, beat Syracuse 27-13; week 4, beat Bucknell 59-0; week 5, beat Virginia Tech 35-33; week 6, lost to North Carolina 17-21; week 7, lost to Boston College 21-27; week 8, lost to Miami 23-52; week 9, beat Georgia Tech 34-11.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Pittsburgh make the College Football Playoff?
- Pittsburgh is 6-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.6 projected wins. It wins the ACC in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Pittsburgh need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Pittsburgh makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Louisville in week 12: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss.
- Who should Pittsburgh fans root for in week 11?
- Miami over Duke, worth 0.01% in playoff odds, then North Carolina over Louisville.
- What is Pittsburgh's toughest game left?
- At Louisville in week 12, with a 26.7% chance to win.
- How are Pittsburgh's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Pittsburgh's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.