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UCF playoff odds
UCF makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UCF playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UCF is 5-4 (3-3 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.8 projected wins.
That is the 49th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who UCF fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move UCF's playoff odds the most.
- Colorado over Houston, worth 0.03%
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 0.01%
What UCF needs
Even at 8-4, UCF makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Colorado in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 91.0% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Arizona State | 61.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Iowa State | 60.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Colorado | 55.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
UCF's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 23.0% | 0.1% |
| 7-5 | 39.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 28.7% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 9.0% | <0.1% |
UCF's results
week 1, beat Bethune-Cookman 73-6; week 2, lost to Pittsburgh 7-12; week 3, beat Georgia State 44-30; week 4, beat TCU 21-13; week 5, lost to Houston 17-27; week 6, lost to Oklahoma State 28-42; week 8, beat BYU 39-31; week 9, lost to Baylor 9-41; week 10, beat Kansas 33-32.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UCF make the College Football Playoff?
- UCF is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.8 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UCF need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, UCF makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Colorado in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 91.0% of seasons.
- Who should UCF fans root for in week 11?
- Colorado over Houston, worth 0.03% in playoff odds, then Oklahoma State over Texas Tech.
- What is UCF's toughest game left?
- At Colorado in week 13, with a 55.0% chance to win.
- How are UCF's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UCF's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.