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Baylor playoff odds
Baylor makes the College Football Playoff in 2.8% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Baylor playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Baylor is 6-3 (4-2 in the Big 12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 2.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 1.1%), wins the Big 12 in 2.8% and wins the national title in 0.03%, with 7.1 projected wins.
That is the 28th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Baylor fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Baylor's playoff odds the most.
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 1.16%
- Colorado over Houston, worth 0.54%
- Utah over Arizona, worth 0.46%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.08%
What Baylor needs
Winning out puts Baylor at 37.1%. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 0.4%. The game that decides the most is at BYU in week 11: 8.0% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 6.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Baylor at 100.0% and losing it at 0.4%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at BYU | 34.2% | 8.0% | 0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Texas Tech | 42.9% | 6.5% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Houston | 37.0% | 7.4% | 0.1% |
Baylor's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 7.2% | 37.1% |
| 8-4 | 26.1% | 0.4% |
| 7-5 | 40.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 26.5% | <0.1% |
Baylor's results
week 1, lost to Auburn 16-17; week 2, beat Prairie View A&M 44-3; week 3, beat Louisiana Tech 36-19; week 4, beat Colorado 23-13; week 5, beat Arizona State 55-19; week 7, lost to TCU 6-17; week 8, lost to Kansas 24-25; week 9, beat UCF 41-9; week 10, beat Iowa State 42-31.
The Big 12 race
| Team | Wins the Big 12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Utah | 49.3% | 90.7% |
| Texas Tech | 22.0% | 41.4% |
| BYU | 8.3% | 27.4% |
| Houston | 8.3% | 29.8% |
| Arizona | 5.0% | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma State | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Baylor | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UCF | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arizona State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big 12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Baylor make the College Football Playoff?
- Baylor is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 2.8% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.1 projected wins. It wins the Big 12 in 2.8% and the national title in 0.03%.
- What does Baylor need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Baylor at 37.1%. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 0.4%. The game that decides the most is at BYU in week 11: 8.0% with a win, 0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big 12 title game in 6.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Baylor at 100.0% and losing it at 0.4%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Baylor fans root for in week 11?
- Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, worth 1.16% in playoff odds, then Colorado over Houston.
- What is Baylor's toughest game left?
- At BYU in week 11, with a 34.2% chance to win.
- How are Baylor's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Baylor's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.