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Duke playoff odds
Duke makes the College Football Playoff in 1.7% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Duke playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Duke is 7-2 (4-2 in the ACC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 1.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.5%), wins the ACC in 1.6% and wins the national title in 0.04%, with 8.2 projected wins.
That is the 30th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Duke fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Duke's playoff odds the most.
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 0.74%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.23%
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 0.20%
- Virginia over California, worth 0.16%
- Georgia Tech over Clemson, worth 0.15%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.15%
What Duke needs
Winning out puts Duke at 32.7%. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 0.7%. The game that decides the most is at Miami in week 11: 9.9% with a win, 0.2% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 4.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Duke at 100.0% and losing it at 4.0%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Miami | 15.5% | 9.9% | 0.2% |
| Week 12 | vs Clemson | 70.5% | 2.4% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Wake Forest | 32.0% | 5.4% | <0.1% |
Duke's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 4.7% | 32.7% |
| 9-3 | 27.6% | 0.7% |
| 8-4 | 48.9% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 18.9% | <0.1% |
Duke's results
week 1, beat Tulane 17-3; week 2, beat Illinois 31-27; week 3, beat Stanford 35-7; week 4, beat William & Mary 62-7; week 6, lost to Georgia Tech 25-28; week 7, lost to North Carolina 20-24; week 8, beat Virginia 19-16; week 9, beat Boston College 47-2; week 10, beat NC State 41-3.
The ACC race
| Team | Wins the ACC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 70.6% | 96.1% |
| Wake Forest | 19.9% | 43.1% |
| Louisville | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| SMU | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Duke | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Clemson | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| North Carolina | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Boston College | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The ACC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Duke make the College Football Playoff?
- Duke is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 1.7% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.2 projected wins. It wins the ACC in 1.6% and the national title in 0.04%.
- What does Duke need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Duke at 32.7%. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 0.7%. The game that decides the most is at Miami in week 11: 9.9% with a win, 0.2% with a loss. It reaches the ACC title game in 4.8% of seasons. Winning it puts Duke at 100.0% and losing it at 4.0%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Duke fans root for in week 11?
- North Carolina over Louisville, worth 0.74% in playoff odds, then SMU over Wake Forest.
- What is Duke's toughest game left?
- At Miami in week 11, with a 15.5% chance to win.
- How are Duke's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Duke's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.