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Georgia playoff odds
Georgia makes the College Football Playoff in 97.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Georgia playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Georgia is 8-1 (6-1 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 97.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 82.8%), wins the SEC in 54.7%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 78.7% and wins the national title in 20.79%, with 10.6 projected wins.
That is the 2nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 5.
Who Georgia fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Georgia's playoff odds the most.
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 0.85%
- Arkansas over South Carolina, worth 0.68%
- Auburn over Mississippi State, worth 0.61%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.52%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.33%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.31%
What Georgia needs
Georgia can afford one loss. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 99.5%, at 9-3 in 42.5%. The game that decides the most is against Missouri in week 11: 99.7% with a win, 82.2% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 94.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Georgia at 100.0% and losing it at 98.9%; missing it leaves 58.4%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Missouri | 86.6% | 99.7% | 82.2% |
| Week 12 | at South Carolina | 76.7% | 99.8% | 89.3% |
| Week 13 | vs Georgia Tech | 98.9% | 97.7% | 69.7% |
Georgia's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 11-1 | 66.5% | 100.0% |
| 10-2 | 29.2% | 99.5% |
| 9-3 | 4.2% | 42.5% |
Georgia's results
week 1, beat Tennessee State 63-3; week 2, beat Western Kentucky 70-20; week 3, beat Arkansas 45-17; week 4, beat Oklahoma 41-13; week 5, beat Vanderbilt 38-14; week 6, beat Alabama 20-17; week 7, lost to Auburn 24-27; week 9, beat Florida 27-8; week 10, beat Ole Miss 42-7.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff?
- Georgia is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 97.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 10.6 projected wins. It wins the SEC in 54.7% and the national title in 20.79%.
- What does Georgia need to make the playoff?
- Georgia can afford one loss. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 99.5%, at 9-3 in 42.5%. The game that decides the most is against Missouri in week 11: 99.7% with a win, 82.2% with a loss. It reaches the SEC title game in 94.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Georgia at 100.0% and losing it at 98.9%; missing it leaves 58.4%.
- Who should Georgia fans root for in week 11?
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 0.85% in playoff odds, then Arkansas over South Carolina.
- What is Georgia's toughest game left?
- At South Carolina in week 12, with a 76.7% chance to win.
- How are Georgia's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Georgia's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.