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Florida playoff odds
Florida makes the College Football Playoff in 1.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Florida playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Florida is 5-4 (3-4 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 1.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 10.5%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in 0.01%, with 6.8 projected wins.
That is the 34th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 19.
Who Florida fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Florida's playoff odds the most.
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.89%
- Texas over LSU, worth 0.75%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 0.72%
- Baylor over BYU, worth 0.61%
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 0.58%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.58%
What Florida needs
Florida needs help even if it wins out. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 6.2%. The game that decides the most is at Kentucky in week 11: 3.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 93.9% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Kentucky | 45.8% | 3.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Vanderbilt | 81.3% | 1.7% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Florida State | 54.4% | 2.6% | <0.1% |
Florida's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 22.7% | 6.2% |
| 7-5 | 42.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 28.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 6.1% | <0.1% |
Florida's results
week 1, beat Florida Atlantic 66-21; week 2, beat Campbell 52-3; week 3, beat Auburn 44-39; week 4, beat Ole Miss 52-28; week 5, lost to Missouri 17-45; week 6, lost to South Carolina 19-38; week 7, beat Texas 27-24; week 9, lost to Georgia 8-27; week 10, lost to Oklahoma 7-23.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Florida make the College Football Playoff?
- Florida is 5-4 and makes the playoff in 1.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.8 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in 0.01%.
- What does Florida need to make the playoff?
- Florida needs help even if it wins out. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 6.2%. The game that decides the most is at Kentucky in week 11: 3.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 93.9% of seasons.
- Who should Florida fans root for in week 11?
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.89% in playoff odds, then Texas over LSU.
- What is Florida's toughest game left?
- At Kentucky in week 11, with a 45.8% chance to win.
- How are Florida's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Florida's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.