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Missouri playoff odds
Missouri makes the College Football Playoff in 2.6% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Missouri playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Missouri is 6-3 (3-3 in the SEC) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 2.6% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 10.1%), wins the SEC in <0.1% and wins the national title in 0.05%, with 7.3 projected wins.
That is the 29th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 18.
Who Missouri fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Missouri's playoff odds the most.
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 1.00%
- Boston College over Notre Dame, worth 0.87%
- Texas over LSU, worth 0.80%
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 0.73%
- Mississippi State over Auburn, worth 0.59%
- SMU over Wake Forest, worth 0.52%
What Missouri needs
Winning out puts Missouri at 41.1%. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 0.3%. The game that decides the most is at Georgia in week 11: 18.5% with a win, 0.1% with a loss.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Georgia | 13.4% | 18.5% | 0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Kentucky | 62.5% | 4.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Oklahoma | 56.2% | 4.6% | <0.1% |
Missouri's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 6.0% | 41.1% |
| 8-4 | 36.4% | 0.3% |
| 7-5 | 41.3% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 16.3% | <0.1% |
Missouri's results
week 1, beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14; week 2, beat Kansas 38-21; week 3, beat Troy 27-17; week 4, lost to Mississippi State 24-31; week 5, beat Florida 45-17; week 6, beat Texas A&M 27-6; week 7, lost to Ole Miss 3-31; week 9, beat Arkansas 34-10; week 10, lost to Texas 20-34.
The SEC race
| Team | Wins the SEC | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 54.7% | 97.4% |
| Alabama | 27.4% | 97.8% |
| Texas | 10.2% | 76.8% |
| Tennessee | 5.5% | 43.0% |
| Kentucky | 1.0% | 39.6% |
| Ole Miss | 0.7% | 32.7% |
| LSU | 0.3% | 36.5% |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 8.3% |
| Missouri | <0.1% | 2.6% |
The SEC title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Missouri make the College Football Playoff?
- Missouri is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 2.6% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.3 projected wins. It wins the SEC in <0.1% and the national title in 0.05%.
- What does Missouri need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Missouri at 41.1%. At 8-4 it makes the playoff in 0.3%. The game that decides the most is at Georgia in week 11: 18.5% with a win, 0.1% with a loss.
- Who should Missouri fans root for in week 11?
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 1.00% in playoff odds, then Boston College over Notre Dame.
- What is Missouri's toughest game left?
- At Georgia in week 11, with a 13.4% chance to win.
- How are Missouri's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Missouri's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.