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Troy playoff odds
Troy makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Troy playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Troy is 4-5 (2-3 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.2 projected wins.
That is the 123rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Troy fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Troy's playoff odds.
What Troy needs
Even at 7-5, Troy makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 34.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at South Alabama | 39.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Georgia Southern | 34.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Arkansas State | 42.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Troy's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 7.5% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 26.6% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 40.0% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 25.9% | <0.1% |
Troy's results
week 1, beat Sam Houston 24-21; week 2, beat Alabama State 34-17; week 3, lost to Missouri 17-27; week 4, lost to Utah State 10-21; week 6, beat Southern Miss 55-34; week 7, lost to Louisiana 6-33; week 8, lost to UL Monroe 14-21; week 9, beat James Madison 24-21; week 10, lost to Louisiana Tech 17-41.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Troy make the College Football Playoff?
- Troy is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.2 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Troy need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Troy makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 34.1% of seasons.
- Who should Troy fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Troy's playoff odds.
- What is Troy's toughest game left?
- Hosting Georgia Southern in week 12, with a 34.4% chance to win.
- How are Troy's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Troy's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.