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James Madison playoff odds
James Madison makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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James Madison playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
James Madison is 8-2 (5-2 in the Sun Belt) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Sun Belt in 41.0% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 9.6 projected wins.
That is the 48th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who James Madison fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move James Madison's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.05%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 0.02%
- San Diego State over Utah State, worth 0.01%
- Louisiana Tech over Southern Miss, worth 0.01%
- UTSA over North Texas, worth 0.01%
- Troy over South Alabama, worth 0.01%
What James Madison needs
Even at 10-2, James Madison makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at UConn in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 72.2% of seasons. Winning it puts James Madison at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at UConn | 70.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Coastal Carolina | 89.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
James Madison's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 63.4% | <0.1% |
| 9-3 | 32.8% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 3.8% | <0.1% |
James Madison's results
week 1, beat Liberty 20-13; week 2, beat Wagner 87-3; week 3, beat San Diego State 26-13; week 4, beat Old Dominion 46-20; week 5, beat Marshall 45-17; week 6, beat Georgia Southern 27-24; week 7, beat Georgia State 49-22; week 8, lost to App State 31-34; week 9, lost to Troy 21-24; week 10, beat Southern Miss 54-23.
The Sun Belt race
| Team | Wins the Sun Belt | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 42.3% | 0.2% |
| James Madison | 41.0% | <0.1% |
| Georgia Southern | 16.2% | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Arkansas State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Southern Miss | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| App State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Georgia State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Marshall | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Sun Belt title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will James Madison make the College Football Playoff?
- James Madison is 8-2 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.6 projected wins. It wins the Sun Belt in 41.0% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does James Madison need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, James Madison makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at UConn in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Sun Belt title game in 72.2% of seasons. Winning it puts James Madison at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should James Madison fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.05% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is James Madison's toughest game left?
- At UConn in week 11, with a 70.0% chance to win.
- How are James Madison's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in James Madison's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.