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Boise State playoff odds
Boise State makes the College Football Playoff in 86.0% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Boise State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Boise State is 8-1 (5-0 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 86.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 59.8%), wins the Pac-12 in 71.6%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.2% and wins the national title in 0.32%, with 9.7 projected wins.
That is the 6th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 16.
Who Boise State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Boise State's playoff odds the most.
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 8.68%
- Oregon over Michigan, worth 2.49%
- Western Michigan over Akron, worth 2.33%
- Ole Miss over Oklahoma, worth 1.60%
- Memphis over South Florida, worth 1.59%
- Hawai'i over North Dakota State, worth 1.10%
What Boise State needs
Winning out puts Boise State at 99.6%. At 9-2 it makes the playoff in 58.8%. The game that decides the most is against Oregon State in week 11: 97.0% with a win, 54.8% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 98.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Boise State at 93.0% and losing it at 71.1%; missing it leaves 2.6%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Oregon State | 74.0% | 97.0% | 54.8% |
| Week 12 | vs San Diego State | 93.4% | 89.3% | 38.7% |
Boise State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-1 | 69.6% | 99.6% |
| 9-2 | 28.2% | 58.8% |
| 8-3 | 2.2% | 4.6% |
Boise State's results
week 1, lost to Oregon 27-34; week 2, beat Memphis 38-20; week 3, beat South Dakota 38-24; week 4, beat Western Michigan 32-7; week 5, beat Utah State 37-18; week 6, beat Fresno State 38-31; week 8, beat Washington State 31-10; week 9, beat Texas State 46-45; week 10, beat Colorado State 64-38.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff?
- Boise State is 8-1 and makes the playoff in 86.0% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.7 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in 71.6% and the national title in 0.32%.
- What does Boise State need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Boise State at 99.6%. At 9-2 it makes the playoff in 58.8%. The game that decides the most is against Oregon State in week 11: 97.0% with a win, 54.8% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 98.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Boise State at 93.0% and losing it at 71.1%; missing it leaves 2.6%.
- Who should Boise State fans root for in week 11?
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 8.68% in playoff odds, then Oregon over Michigan.
- What is Boise State's toughest game left?
- Hosting Oregon State in week 11, with a 74.0% chance to win.
- How are Boise State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Boise State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.