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Fresno State playoff odds
Fresno State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Fresno State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Fresno State is 5-3 (2-2 in the Pac-12) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Pac-12 in 5.9% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 7.9 projected wins.
That is the 47th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Fresno State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Fresno State's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.03%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 0.02%
- Middle Tennessee over Liberty, worth 0.01%
- USC over Indiana, worth 0.01%
- Sacramento State over Central Michigan, worth 0.01%
- Utah State over San Diego State, worth 0.01%
What Fresno State needs
Even at 9-3, Fresno State makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Texas State in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 23.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Fresno State at 0.2% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 | at Utah State | 60.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 11 | at Texas State | 46.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Colorado State | 87.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs TBD | 99.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Fresno State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 26.6% | 0.1% |
| 8-4 | 44.1% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 25.2% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 4.0% | <0.1% |
Fresno State's results
week 1, lost to USC 0-39; week 2, beat Sacramento State 49-3; week 3, beat San José State 26-10; week 4, beat Rice 38-24; week 5, beat Washington State 26-6; week 6, lost to Boise State 31-38; week 7, lost to San Diego State 23-26; week 9, beat Oregon State 38-22.
The Pac-12 race
| Team | Wins the Pac-12 | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 71.6% | 86.0% |
| Oregon State | 16.6% | 1.5% |
| Fresno State | 5.9% | <0.1% |
| Texas State | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| Utah State | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| San Diego State | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| Colorado State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Washington State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Pac-12 title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Fresno State make the College Football Playoff?
- Fresno State is 5-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 7.9 projected wins. It wins the Pac-12 in 5.9% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Fresno State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Fresno State makes the playoff in 0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Texas State in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Pac-12 title game in 23.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Fresno State at 0.2% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Fresno State fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.03% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is Fresno State's toughest game left?
- At Texas State in week 11, with a 46.4% chance to win.
- How are Fresno State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Fresno State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.