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Central Michigan playoff odds
Central Michigan makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Central Michigan playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Central Michigan is 4-5 (2-3 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 6.0 projected wins.
That is the 71st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Central Michigan fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Central Michigan's playoff odds.
What Central Michigan needs
Even at 7-5, Central Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 72.3% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Sacramento State | 89.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Buffalo | 44.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Ball State | 62.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Central Michigan's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | 27.1% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 45.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 24.5% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 3.2% | <0.1% |
Central Michigan's results
week 1, lost to New Mexico 7-38; week 2, beat Colgate 13-10; week 3, beat Wyoming 24-10; week 4, lost to Miami 3-52; week 5, beat Akron 41-17; week 6, lost to Ohio 14-31; week 7, lost to Western Michigan 14-21; week 8, lost to Miami (OH) 27-28; week 10, beat Eastern Michigan 35-7.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Central Michigan make the College Football Playoff?
- Central Michigan is 4-5 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 6.0 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Central Michigan need to make the playoff?
- Even at 7-5, Central Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 72.3% of seasons.
- Who should Central Michigan fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Central Michigan's playoff odds.
- What is Central Michigan's toughest game left?
- At Buffalo in week 12, with a 44.8% chance to win.
- How are Central Michigan's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Central Michigan's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.