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Western Michigan playoff odds
Western Michigan makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Western Michigan playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Western Michigan is 6-3 (4-1 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in 38.6% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 8.4 projected wins.
That is the 137th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Western Michigan fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Western Michigan's playoff odds.
What Western Michigan needs
Even at 9-3, Western Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 66.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Western Michigan at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Akron | 85.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Eastern Michigan | 86.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Miami (OH) | 72.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Western Michigan's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 55.2% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 34.8% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 9.0% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 1.0% | <0.1% |
Western Michigan's results
week 1, lost to Michigan 12-13; week 2, beat Monmouth 49-14; week 3, beat Rice 28-21; week 4, lost to Boise State 7-32; week 5, beat Buffalo 20-17; week 6, beat Kent State 38-7; week 7, beat Central Michigan 21-14; week 8, lost to Toledo 38-45; week 9, beat Bowling Green 23-10.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Western Michigan make the College Football Playoff?
- Western Michigan is 6-3 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.4 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in 38.6% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Western Michigan need to make the playoff?
- Even at 9-3, Western Michigan makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 66.7% of seasons. Winning it puts Western Michigan at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Western Michigan fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Western Michigan's playoff odds.
- What is Western Michigan's toughest game left?
- Hosting Miami (OH) in week 13, with a 72.3% chance to win.
- How are Western Michigan's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Western Michigan's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.