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Akron playoff odds
Akron makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Akron playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Akron is 1-8 (0-5 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 1.7 projected wins.
That is the 61st-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Akron fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Akron's playoff odds.
What Akron needs
Even at 4-8, Akron makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Western Michigan | 14.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Massachusetts | 25.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Buffalo | 32.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Akron's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | 1.9% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 13.7% | <0.1% |
| 2-10 | 38.9% | <0.1% |
| 1-11 | 45.5% | <0.1% |
Akron's results
week 1, lost to Wake Forest 16-38; week 2, beat Robert Morris 45-10; week 3, lost to Minnesota 7-41; week 4, lost to UNLV 10-38; week 5, lost to Central Michigan 17-41; week 6, lost to Eastern Michigan 23-25; week 7, lost to Miami (OH) 14-34; week 8, lost to Kent State 20-35; week 10, lost to Ohio 20-28.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Akron make the College Football Playoff?
- Akron is 1-8 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 1.7 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Akron need to make the playoff?
- Even at 4-8, Akron makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons.
- Who should Akron fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Akron's playoff odds.
- What is Akron's toughest game left?
- Hosting Western Michigan in week 11, with a 14.5% chance to win.
- How are Akron's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Akron's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.