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Ohio playoff odds
Ohio makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Ohio playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Ohio is 7-2 (5-0 in the Mid-American) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Mid-American in 23.3% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 8.8 projected wins.
That is the 59th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Ohio fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Ohio's playoff odds.
What Ohio needs
Even at 10-2, Ohio makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Miami (OH) in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 53.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Ohio at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Miami (OH) | 47.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Ball State | 81.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Toledo | 46.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Ohio's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 20.3% | <0.1% |
| 9-3 | 41.4% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 31.5% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 6.7% | <0.1% |
Ohio's results
week 1, lost to Nebraska 21-49; week 2, beat Jacksonville State 29-27; week 3, lost to South Alabama 36-41; week 4, beat Stonehill 35-7; week 5, beat Kent State 13-10; week 6, beat Central Michigan 31-14; week 7, beat Sacramento State 48-7; week 8, beat Eastern Michigan 24-20; week 10, beat Akron 28-20.
The Mid-American race
| Team | Wins the Mid-American | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan | 38.6% | <0.1% |
| Toledo | 26.3% | <0.1% |
| Ohio | 23.3% | <0.1% |
| Buffalo | 9.1% | <0.1% |
| Miami (OH) | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| Central Michigan | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Massachusetts | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Kent State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Ball State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Bowling Green | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mid-American title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Ohio make the College Football Playoff?
- Ohio is 7-2 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.8 projected wins. It wins the Mid-American in 23.3% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Ohio need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, Ohio makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at Miami (OH) in week 11: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mid-American title game in 53.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Ohio at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Ohio fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Ohio's playoff odds.
- What is Ohio's toughest game left?
- Hosting Toledo in week 13, with a 46.7% chance to win.
- How are Ohio's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Ohio's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.