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UTSA playoff odds
UTSA makes the College Football Playoff in 0.3% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UTSA playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UTSA is 7-2 (4-1 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 0.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.8%), wins the American Athletic in 14.5% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 8.6 projected wins.
That is the 38th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 25.
Who UTSA fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move UTSA's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.83%
- UNLV over New Mexico, worth 0.30%
- Texas State over Fresno State, worth 0.13%
- South Florida over Memphis, worth 0.11%
- Florida Atlantic over Tulsa, worth 0.10%
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 0.06%
What UTSA needs
UTSA needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 1.6%. The game that decides the most is against North Texas in week 11: 0.6% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 35.4% of seasons. Winning it puts UTSA at 1.7% and losing it at 0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs North Texas | 41.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at UAB | 69.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Tulsa | 50.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
UTSA's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 17.0% | 1.6% |
| 9-3 | 38.3% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 33.8% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 11.0% | <0.1% |
UTSA's results
week 1, beat UT Rio Grande Valley 45-16; week 2, beat Texas State 31-26; week 3, lost to Texas 6-30; week 4, beat Colorado State 59-45; week 5, beat Rice 16-14; week 6, beat South Florida 31-24; week 7, beat Navy 38-34; week 8, beat Tulane 42-19; week 10, lost to Florida Atlantic 29-60.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UTSA make the College Football Playoff?
- UTSA is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 0.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.6 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 14.5% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UTSA need to make the playoff?
- UTSA needs help even if it wins out. At 10-2 it makes the playoff in 1.6%. The game that decides the most is against North Texas in week 11: 0.6% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 35.4% of seasons. Winning it puts UTSA at 1.7% and losing it at 0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should UTSA fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth 0.83% in playoff odds, then UNLV over New Mexico.
- What is UTSA's toughest game left?
- Hosting North Texas in week 11, with a 41.4% chance to win.
- How are UTSA's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UTSA's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.