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Navy playoff odds
Navy makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Navy playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Navy is 3-6 (2-4 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.6 projected wins.
That is the 102nd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Navy fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on Navy's playoff odds.
What Navy needs
Even at 6-6, Navy makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 13.9% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 12 | vs Memphis | 34.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Charlotte | 78.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 15 | vs Army | 43.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Navy's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 13.9% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 38.5% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 38.0% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 9.6% | <0.1% |
Navy's results
week 1, beat Towson 42-15; week 2, lost to Florida Atlantic 30-38; week 4, lost to UAB 20-24; week 5, lost to Air Force 9-14; week 6, beat Tulsa 34-26; week 7, lost to UTSA 34-38; week 8, lost to North Texas 39-49; week 9, lost to Notre Dame 13-35; week 10, beat Temple 42-35.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Navy make the College Football Playoff?
- Navy is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.6 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Navy need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, Navy makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 13.9% of seasons.
- Who should Navy fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on Navy's playoff odds.
- What is Navy's toughest game left?
- Hosting Memphis in week 12, with a 34.4% chance to win.
- How are Navy's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Navy's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.