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UAB playoff odds
UAB makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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UAB playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
UAB is 5-4 (3-2 in the American Athletic) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the American Athletic in 0.2% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 5.7 projected wins.
That is the 126th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who UAB fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on UAB's playoff odds.
What UAB needs
Even at 8-4, UAB makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 0.9% of seasons. Winning it puts UAB at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 56.1% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Temple | 33.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs UTSA | 30.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at North Texas | 10.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
UAB's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | 1.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 14.4% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 40.1% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 43.9% | <0.1% |
UAB's results
week 1, lost to Illinois 23-42; week 2, beat UL Monroe 26-20; week 3, lost to Louisiana 14-21; week 4, beat Navy 24-20; week 5, beat Samford 33-14; week 6, lost to Memphis 13-38; week 7, beat East Carolina 30-17; week 9, lost to South Florida 10-30; week 10, beat Charlotte 23-12.
The American Athletic race
| Team | Wins the American Athletic | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas | 51.7% | 1.1% |
| Memphis | 24.9% | 0.1% |
| UTSA | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| Army | 6.8% | <0.1% |
| East Carolina | 1.2% | <0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| Tulsa | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| UAB | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| South Florida | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| Tulane | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The American Athletic title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will UAB make the College Football Playoff?
- UAB is 5-4 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 5.7 projected wins. It wins the American Athletic in 0.2% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does UAB need to make the playoff?
- Even at 8-4, UAB makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches the American Athletic title game in 0.9% of seasons. Winning it puts UAB at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 56.1% of seasons.
- Who should UAB fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on UAB's playoff odds.
- What is UAB's toughest game left?
- At North Texas in week 13, with a 10.3% chance to win.
- How are UAB's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in UAB's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.