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Air Force playoff odds
Air Force makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Air Force playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Air Force is 7-2 (3-2 in the Mountain West) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 0.1%), wins the Mountain West in 2.9% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 8.9 projected wins.
That is the 54th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who Air Force fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Air Force's playoff odds the most.
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01%
What Air Force needs
Even at 10-2, Air Force makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at New Mexico in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 8.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Air Force at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs San José State | 77.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs UTEP | 93.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at New Mexico | 19.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Air Force's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 14.8% | <0.1% |
| 9-3 | 61.8% | <0.1% |
| 8-4 | 21.7% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 1.6% | <0.1% |
Air Force's results
week 1, beat Duquesne 34-0; week 2, lost to North Dakota State 32-38; week 4, beat Nevada 36-33; week 5, beat Navy 14-9; week 6, beat Northern Illinois 28-7; week 7, beat UNLV 41-31; week 8, lost to Wyoming 14-28; week 9, beat UConn 35-26; week 10, beat Army 24-21.
The Mountain West race
| Team | Wins the Mountain West | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 70.1% | 10.9% |
| North Dakota State | 16.3% | <0.1% |
| UNLV | 8.3% | <0.1% |
| Air Force | 2.9% | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| San José State | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Nevada | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'i | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Northern Illinois | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| UTEP | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Mountain West title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Air Force make the College Football Playoff?
- Air Force is 7-2 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.9 projected wins. It wins the Mountain West in 2.9% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does Air Force need to make the playoff?
- Even at 10-2, Air Force makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. The game that decides the most is at New Mexico in week 13: <0.1% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Mountain West title game in 8.6% of seasons. Winning it puts Air Force at <0.1% and losing it at <0.1%; missing it leaves <0.1%.
- Who should Air Force fans root for in week 11?
- Oregon State over Boise State, worth <0.01% in playoff odds.
- What is Air Force's toughest game left?
- At New Mexico in week 13, with a 19.0% chance to win.
- How are Air Force's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Air Force's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.