simulating…
Iowa playoff odds
Iowa makes the College Football Playoff in 9.3% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
Playoff seed
Your team's games
Simulating a season…
Standings
Iowa playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Iowa is 7-2 (4-2 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 9.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 11.4%), wins the Big Ten in 1.7% and wins the national title in 0.15%, with 9.1 projected wins.
That is the 23rd-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 24.
Who Iowa fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Iowa's playoff odds the most.
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 3.54%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 3.48%
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 3.42%
- Northwestern over Ohio State, worth 3.31%
- Minnesota over Penn State, worth 2.49%
- Texas A&M over Tennessee, worth 2.48%
What Iowa needs
Winning out puts Iowa at 26.1%. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 0.1%. The game that decides the most is against Nebraska in week 13: 15.0% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 4.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Iowa at 100.0% and losing it at 29.8%; missing it leaves 7.2%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Purdue | 85.6% | 10.9% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | at Illinois | 62.6% | 14.9% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | vs Nebraska | 62.1% | 15.0% | <0.1% |
Iowa's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | 35.7% | 26.1% |
| 9-3 | 41.9% | 0.1% |
| 8-4 | 19.4% | <0.1% |
| 7-5 | 3.0% | <0.1% |
Iowa's results
week 1, beat Northern Illinois 40-0; week 2, beat Iowa State 16-13; week 3, beat Northern Iowa 55-0; week 4, beat Michigan 20-19; week 5, lost to Ohio State 14-31; week 6, beat Washington 41-24; week 8, lost to Minnesota 10-13; week 9, beat Wisconsin 30-0; week 10, beat Northwestern 24-10.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Iowa make the College Football Playoff?
- Iowa is 7-2 and makes the playoff in 9.3% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 9.1 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 1.7% and the national title in 0.15%.
- What does Iowa need to make the playoff?
- Winning out puts Iowa at 26.1%. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 0.1%. The game that decides the most is against Nebraska in week 13: 15.0% with a win, <0.1% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 4.1% of seasons. Winning it puts Iowa at 100.0% and losing it at 29.8%; missing it leaves 7.2%.
- Who should Iowa fans root for in week 11?
- Michigan over Oregon, worth 3.54% in playoff odds, then Oklahoma over Ole Miss.
- What is Iowa's toughest game left?
- Hosting Nebraska in week 13, with a 62.1% chance to win.
- How are Iowa's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Iowa's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.