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Ohio State playoff odds
Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff in 29.4% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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Ohio State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
Ohio State is 6-3 (4-2 in the Big Ten) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in 29.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: 75.6%), wins the Big Ten in 12.8%, earns a top-four seed and first-round bye in 0.3% and wins the national title in 2.92%, with 8.4 projected wins.
That is the 17th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams. In the model's projected CFP rankings after week 9, it is No. 13.
Who Ohio State fans should root for in week 11
The week 11 games that move Ohio State's playoff odds the most.
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 10.17%
- Iowa over Purdue, worth 7.32%
- Texas over LSU, worth 6.00%
- Oklahoma over Ole Miss, worth 5.29%
- USC over Indiana, worth 4.37%
- Florida over Kentucky, worth 3.71%
What Ohio State needs
Ohio State has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 54.6%, at 8-4 in 1.0%. The game that decides the most is at Nebraska in week 12: 41.3% with a win, 0.7% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 18.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Ohio State at 100.0% and losing it at 42.8%; missing it leaves 17.3%.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | vs Northwestern | 82.9% | 35.4% | 0.5% |
| Week 12 | at Nebraska | 70.7% | 41.3% | 0.7% |
| Week 13 | vs Michigan | 87.6% | 33.5% | 0.5% |
Ohio State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | 53.2% | 54.6% |
| 8-4 | 35.9% | 1.0% |
| 7-5 | 9.7% | <0.1% |
| 6-6 | 1.1% | <0.1% |
Ohio State's results
week 1, beat Ball State 56-3; week 2, lost to Texas 23-24; week 3, beat Kent State 59-3; week 4, beat Illinois 42-19; week 5, beat Iowa 31-14; week 6, beat Maryland 45-16; week 7, beat Indiana 19-15; week 9, lost to USC 18-30; week 10, lost to Oregon 28-41.
The Big Ten race
| Team | Wins the Big Ten | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 42.4% | 62.9% |
| UCLA | 20.8% | 67.0% |
| Oregon | 14.2% | 24.6% |
| Ohio State | 12.8% | 29.4% |
| USC | 6.0% | 13.0% |
| Iowa | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| Wisconsin | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Illinois | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Northwestern | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Minnesota | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Big Ten title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff?
- Ohio State is 6-3 and makes the playoff in 29.4% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 8.4 projected wins. It wins the Big Ten in 12.8% and the national title in 2.92%.
- What does Ohio State need to make the playoff?
- Ohio State has to win out. At 9-3 it makes the playoff in 54.6%, at 8-4 in 1.0%. The game that decides the most is at Nebraska in week 12: 41.3% with a win, 0.7% with a loss. It reaches the Big Ten title game in 18.9% of seasons. Winning it puts Ohio State at 100.0% and losing it at 42.8%; missing it leaves 17.3%.
- Who should Ohio State fans root for in week 11?
- Illinois over UCLA, worth 10.17% in playoff odds, then Iowa over Purdue.
- What is Ohio State's toughest game left?
- At Nebraska in week 12, with a 70.7% chance to win.
- How are Ohio State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in Ohio State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.