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New Mexico State playoff odds
New Mexico State makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated 2026 seasons. Loading the week 11 guide…
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New Mexico State playoff odds and who to root for
Updated November 8, after week 9.
New Mexico State is 3-6 (2-3 in the Conference USA) through week 9 of the 2026 season. It makes the College Football Playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons (ESPN's FPI: <0.1%), wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and wins the national title in <0.01%, with 4.3 projected wins.
That is the 105th-best playoff chance among the 138 FBS teams.
Who New Mexico State fans should root for in week 11
No other game this week has a significant effect on New Mexico State's playoff odds.
What New Mexico State needs
Even at 6-6, New Mexico State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 10.2% of seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Win probability | Playoff odds after a win | After a loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 11 | at Missouri State | 41.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 12 | vs Delaware | 42.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Week 13 | at Middle Tennessee | 46.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
New Mexico State's playoff odds by final record
| Regular season | Chance of that record | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | 10.2% | <0.1% |
| 5-7 | 30.3% | <0.1% |
| 4-8 | 38.4% | <0.1% |
| 3-9 | 21.1% | <0.1% |
New Mexico State's results
week 1, lost to Florida State 17-34; week 1, beat Mercyhurst 51-14; week 2, lost to Hawai'i 19-29; week 4, lost to New Mexico 18-42; week 5, beat Western Kentucky 34-13; week 6, lost to Florida International 3-22; week 8, beat Sam Houston 30-24; week 9, lost to Jacksonville State 0-24; week 10, lost to Liberty 14-30.
The Conference USA race
| Team | Wins the Conference USA | Makes the playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 78.2% | 0.2% |
| Jacksonville State | 21.2% | <0.1% |
| Delaware | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Middle Tennessee | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Missouri State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida International | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Western Kentucky | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico State | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Sam Houston | <0.1% | <0.1% |
The Conference USA title race: every team, the likeliest title games and how ties are broken.
Questions
- Will New Mexico State make the College Football Playoff?
- New Mexico State is 3-6 and makes the playoff in <0.1% of 2.5 million simulated seasons, with 4.3 projected wins. It wins the Conference USA in <0.1% and the national title in <0.01%.
- What does New Mexico State need to make the playoff?
- Even at 6-6, New Mexico State makes the playoff in <0.1% of seasons. It reaches six wins and a bowl in 10.2% of seasons.
- Who should New Mexico State fans root for in week 11?
- No other game this week has a significant effect on New Mexico State's playoff odds.
- What is New Mexico State's toughest game left?
- At Missouri State in week 11, with a 41.3% chance to win.
- How are New Mexico State's playoff odds calculated?
- The rest of the season is simulated 2.5 million times. Each simulated season is rated, ranked by a model of the selection committee and played through the bracket. A game's impact is the difference in New Mexico State's playoff odds between the simulations each team wins it.